The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]
Fed’s 2% Inflation Target
It is clear to us that inflation has peaked, but getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target will be a challenge. It’ll be a challenge for our overly indebted world to sustain 5-6% interest rates for a prolonged period, which is the Fed’s guidance. However, there’s plenty of financial liquidity sitting on the sidelines […]
The FTX Bankruptcy and contagion to other platforms is likely to be the Lehman moment for crypto assets. While we don’t know the exact details leading to the failure, on-chain analysis shows the 3AC failure in June as a flash point. We wish the analysis had been presented a few weeks prior, and not after […]
Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?
Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.
US Recession and Earnings Outlook
This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]