We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]
The current debt ceiling morass should add liquidity into the economy and markets in the short term. The added liquidity, along with Fed pivot enthusiasm, is clearly supporting higher asset prices currently. This is ironic as not resolving the debt ceiling in a timely manner increases market risk, and it highlights the unsustainable debt picture […]
Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.