The failures of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) this week highlight the economic risks from high interest rates. This should be a warning to the Fed and investors alike that the highly indebted US economy is already in financial stress, even as credit spreads remain normal. Historically, financial market participants have looked to […]
bond yield
Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022
We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]
Why yields rise, Wall Street bitcoin adoption & bitcoin skeptics.
Dispatch #7 – 5 March, 20201 I was hoping to write about something other than yields this week, but the issue isn’t going away quietly! If yields rise, it is likely to dominate all asset markets, with the US$ rising along with higher US yields and risks markets selling off. Equity markets did rally on […]
Dispatch #5 – Bitcoin at $1 trillion, BlackRock “dabbles”, JPM’s 86pg report…
This week (Feb 15th) bitcoin’s market value rose above $1 trillion, but short-term indicators are flashing red. This issue digs into the following additional events that point to continued institutional and individual adoption. Microstrategy (NASDAQ – MSTR) issues ~ $1bn bond to buy bitcoin – bond excess! BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) said they are […]