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earnings estimates

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

November 12, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?

Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: earnings estimates, equity positioning, financial conditions, LEIs, Recession, S&P earnings, SLO, Stock Market, Stocks

September 21, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Recession and Earnings Outlook

This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, container volumes, earnings estimates, equity positioning, Estimate revisions, Leading Indicators, Recession, retail sentiment, S&P earnings, Tornado Cash

July 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed?

The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: CAPE ratio, earnings estimates, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, inflation, inflation expectations, Market Outlook, Recession, S&P, S&P earnings, stagflation

June 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Market Tea Leaves for 2H22

As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: 3AC, Blockfi, bond volatility, buffett indicator, CAPE ratio, Celcius Network, Celsius, Commodities, commodity inflation, crypto winter, earnings estimates, equity valuations, FTX, Gucci, inflation, inventory spike, LooksRare, move index, NFTs, Paypal, profit margins, rents, S&P earnings, SBF, shelter inflation, sticky price inflation, Uniswap, Voyager, wage inflation, yield curve

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