The China economic slowdown is well documented, and foreign investors have been notable net sellers of the country. This post looks at the economy’s overreliance on investments, the need to stimulate consumption and tactical near-term positives. As fundamental analysts that have followed China since the 1990s, The Dispatch can’t get excited about doubling down on […]
China RE policy
Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022
We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]
US Inflation Surge
US inflation surge is the big news this week in the media, although The Dispatch is tired of the subject. Last week, we reiterated our high inflation view in Dispatch #36, which was first laid out in Dispatch #23. We continue to see shelter inflation catch-up offset the coming slowdown in transitory items that are […]
Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US
Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US with the share having doubled since April 2021 and reaching the #1 position globally. US share of bitcoin hashrate reached 34.5% in September, according to University of Cambridge because of China’s crypto mining ban. This geographic migration is important because US-based miners use far more renewable power than Chinese […]
China Crypto Ban & Policy Change Hits Evergrande
China’s crypto ban (again) and Chinese policy changes driving the Evergrande crisis are this week’s focus. When the world’s second largest economy bans an asset class and the largest token (bitcoin) only drops ~5%, does that not seem like a source of strength? Yes, the volatility is unpleasant, but that’s why The Dispatch believes appropriate […]