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CAPE ratio

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

July 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed?

The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: CAPE ratio, earnings estimates, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, inflation, inflation expectations, Market Outlook, Recession, S&P, S&P earnings, stagflation

June 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Market Tea Leaves for 2H22

As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: 3AC, Blockfi, bond volatility, buffett indicator, CAPE ratio, Celcius Network, Celsius, Commodities, commodity inflation, crypto winter, earnings estimates, equity valuations, FTX, Gucci, inflation, inventory spike, LooksRare, move index, NFTs, Paypal, profit margins, rents, S&P earnings, SBF, shelter inflation, sticky price inflation, Uniswap, Voyager, wage inflation, yield curve

May 14, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Bitcoin is Coming to Retirement Plans

Bitcoin is coming to 401(k) retirement plans as Fidelity hopes to offer access to the 23,000 plans it administers. This move by the largest plan administrator, with $2.7tn in plan assets, should drive long-term bitcoin adoption. It will not, however, change the bear market that is currently underway in many assets. The pain in crypto […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: 4% retirement rule, bitcoin 401(k), bitcoin adoption, CAPE ratio, crypto 401K, crypto hack, energy capex, equity valuations, Fidelity, home prices, housing affordability, LUNA, S&P, SEC, SEC crypto compliance, sec crypto enforcement, Terra, US housing, UST, UST depeg

December 18, 2021 By Asi de Silva

Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022

We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]

Filed Under: Blog, News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin pricing model, bond yield, buybacks, CAPE ratio, central bank liquidity, china equities, China Junk bonds, china macro, China policy, China RE policy, crypto adoption, crypto outlook, equity valuations, Evergrande, fund inflows, insider selling, options activity, retail speculation, yield curve

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