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Asi de Silva

March 17, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Fed Expands Balance Sheet Again

We do not believe that the Fed expanding its balance sheet again will mirror the asset performance of 2020/21. The current expansion is to heal a wounded banking system scrambling for liquidity. This liquidity from the Fed will be used to repair balance sheets and has a very low probability of being loaned into the […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank credit, bank failure, BTFP, credit standards, FDIC, Fed balance sheet, Fed discount window, Fed QE, First Republic Bank, lobbying, moral hazard, SVB

March 11, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Risks From High Interest Rates

The failures of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) this week highlight the economic risks from high interest rates. This should be a warning to the Fed and investors alike that the highly indebted US economy is already in financial stress, even as credit spreads remain normal. Historically, financial market participants have looked to […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank failure, bond yield, credit spreads, defaults, high yield, junk bond, LBO, leveraged loans, rate risk, Silvergate, SVB

February 4, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Debt Ceiling & Liquidity

The current debt ceiling morass should add liquidity into the economy and markets in the short term. The added liquidity, along with Fed pivot enthusiasm, is clearly supporting higher asset prices currently. This is ironic as not resolving the debt ceiling in a timely manner increases market risk, and it highlights the unsustainable debt picture […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: BoJ, debt ceiling, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, Japanese flows, Kuroda, LEIs, retail sentiment, S&P, S&P earnings, TGA, YCC, yield curve

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

December 13, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook Slides

Filed Under: Presentations Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook

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