The 2022 crypto selloff exposed the incompetence and hubris in many traditional crypto companies. For example, Celsius had a $1.2bn balance sheet hole on client assets of $4.7bn by the time it filed for bankruptcy. Listed Canadian company Voyager had to declare bankruptcy because it provided a loan of $674m with zero collateral. Other companies […]
Have Stocks Bottomed?
The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.
Market Tea Leaves for 2H22
As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]
Crypto Breaks Cyclical Patterns
The current price action makes it increasingly clear that crypto breaks cyclical patterns of the past. In bitcoin’s short three-cycle history, each cycle saw the token price drop to the 200-week moving average (wma) at the depth of the bear market. However, the price did not fall below the prior cycle high. The current price […]
First Signs of Slowing Real Estate
We saw the first signs of slowing real estate activity this week. April new home sales dropped 16.6% MoM and home builder surveys show an uptick in cancellations. This slowdown is needed to cool the economy and ease inflation. Rents (aka shelter) is over 40% of the core-CPI index, and we need easing house prices […]