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Asi de Silva

September 19, 2023 By Asi de Silva

China Economic Slowdown

The China economic slowdown is well documented, and foreign investors have been notable net sellers of the country. This post looks at the economy’s overreliance on investments, the need to stimulate consumption and tactical near-term positives. As fundamental analysts that have followed China since the 1990s, The Dispatch can’t get excited about doubling down on […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: china consumption, china debt, china economy, china equities, china GDP, china growth, china LGFV, china macro, China policy, China RE policy, China sentiment, china stocks, China valuations, MSCI China, President Xi

July 26, 2023 By Asi de Silva

2H23 market outlook

Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: AAII, bankruptcies, consumer confidence, debt service, equity positioning, equity valuations, inflation, leveraged loans, market sentiment, mortgage rate, NAAIM, rate sensitivity, Recession, refinancing, rents, retail sales, retail sentiment, stock concentration, vix

June 24, 2023 By Asi de Silva

SEC vs. Coinbase

Dispatch #6 shares excerpts of our thoughts on the SEC vs. Coinbase lawsuit, and its implications for the broader ecosystem, from a letter to investors of the RockDen Digital Assets Fund last week. The document was finalized on June 16th, and some of the charts will be dated as a result. The Bitcoin price is […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Binance, Binance Lawsuit, bitcoin adoption, bitcoin ETF, BlackRock, BlackRock bitcoin, Coinbase, Coinbase lawsuit, crypto legislation, crypto regulation, crypto securities, EDX Markets, Fidelity, SEC crypto ETF approval, SEC crypto lawsuits, SEC vs. Ripple

May 27, 2023 By Asi de Silva

We Still Prefer Bonds

We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bankruptcies, BLS revisions, debt ceiling, Debt to GDP, debt wall, default recoveries, defaults, earnings estimates, equity futures, equity positioning, equity valuations, financial repression, LEIs, rate hikes, ratings downgrades, Recession, S&P earnings, unemployment, US debt service, yield curve, yield curve inversion

April 15, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Bank Failures and The Bitcoin Rally

At first blush, it certainly looks like the bank failures may have driven the bitcoin rally higher. Bitcoin and the crypto sector overall had already experienced a crushing drawdown, and the bank failures highlight the fragility of our current debt-laden economic system. However, a deeper look shows that higher beta tech stocks have done just […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank credit, bank failure, bankruptcies, Bitcoin, bitcoin adoption, bitcoin funding rate, Bitcoin futures liquidation, bitcoin on-chain data, BTFP, crypto, crypto liquidation, equity positioning, HODL ratio

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