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equity positioning

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

November 12, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?

Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: earnings estimates, equity positioning, financial conditions, LEIs, Recession, S&P earnings, SLO, Stock Market, Stocks

September 21, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Recession and Earnings Outlook

This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, container volumes, earnings estimates, equity positioning, Estimate revisions, Leading Indicators, Recession, retail sentiment, S&P earnings, Tornado Cash

April 16, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Housing Market Should Cool

US housing market should cool, due to spiking mortgage rates, but a 2008 type collapse is unlikely. The mortgage market has remained resolutely fixed rate during the current bull market, which underpins our sanguine outlook. Yes, there are signs of excess, but there’s no risk of monthly payment ballooning considering that variable rate funding is […]

Filed Under: Blog, News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Commodities, commodity demand, CryptoPunks, equity positioning, goods consumption, home prices, inflation, mortgage, mortgage rate, NFT collateral, NFT loans, NFTs, US housing, used auto prices, wealth effect

July 10, 2021 By Asi de Silva

Elevated equity inflows and bitcoin price update

Dispatch #22 – 2021 July 9th, 2021 I hope everyone enjoyed a relaxing Independence Day weekend. The Dispatch was in South Florida and got a glimpse of a property market even hotter than the DC suburbs. The continued strength of residential real estate goes against the long-term trends of lackluster median income growth and high […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin price cycle, bitcoin wallet holding, covid vaccines, crypto 401K, crypto exchange valuation, equity inflows, equity positioning, sotheby's

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