The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]
equity positioning
Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?
Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.
US Recession and Earnings Outlook
This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]
US Housing Market Should Cool
US housing market should cool, due to spiking mortgage rates, but a 2008 type collapse is unlikely. The mortgage market has remained resolutely fixed rate during the current bull market, which underpins our sanguine outlook. Yes, there are signs of excess, but there’s no risk of monthly payment ballooning considering that variable rate funding is […]
Elevated equity inflows and bitcoin price update
Dispatch #22 – 2021 July 9th, 2021 I hope everyone enjoyed a relaxing Independence Day weekend. The Dispatch was in South Florida and got a glimpse of a property market even hotter than the DC suburbs. The continued strength of residential real estate goes against the long-term trends of lackluster median income growth and high […]