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debt ceiling

May 27, 2023 By Asi de Silva

We Still Prefer Bonds

We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bankruptcies, BLS revisions, debt ceiling, Debt to GDP, debt wall, default recoveries, defaults, earnings estimates, equity futures, equity positioning, equity valuations, financial repression, LEIs, rate hikes, ratings downgrades, Recession, S&P earnings, unemployment, US debt service, yield curve, yield curve inversion

February 4, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Debt Ceiling & Liquidity

The current debt ceiling morass should add liquidity into the economy and markets in the short term. The added liquidity, along with Fed pivot enthusiasm, is clearly supporting higher asset prices currently. This is ironic as not resolving the debt ceiling in a timely manner increases market risk, and it highlights the unsustainable debt picture […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: BoJ, debt ceiling, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, Japanese flows, Kuroda, LEIs, retail sentiment, S&P, S&P earnings, TGA, YCC, yield curve

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