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Market Updates

February 4, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Debt Ceiling & Liquidity

The current debt ceiling morass should add liquidity into the economy and markets in the short term. The added liquidity, along with Fed pivot enthusiasm, is clearly supporting higher asset prices currently. This is ironic as not resolving the debt ceiling in a timely manner increases market risk, and it highlights the unsustainable debt picture […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: BoJ, debt ceiling, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, Japanese flows, Kuroda, LEIs, retail sentiment, S&P, S&P earnings, TGA, YCC, yield curve

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

December 3, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Fed’s 2% Inflation Target

It is clear to us that inflation has peaked, but getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target will be a challenge. It’ll be a challenge for our overly indebted world to sustain 5-6% interest rates for a prolonged period, which is the Fed’s guidance. However, there’s plenty of financial liquidity sitting on the sidelines […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Birth-death model, CPI, CPI components, inflation, Jobs report, JOLTS, NFIB, sticky price inflation, unemployment, yield curve

November 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

FTX Bankruptcy

The FTX Bankruptcy and contagion to other platforms is likely to be the Lehman moment for crypto assets. While we don’t know the exact details leading to the failure, on-chain analysis shows the 3AC failure in June as a flash point. We wish the analysis had been presented a few weeks prior, and not after […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Blockfi, Coinbase, crypto fraud, crypto regulation, crypto selloff, crypto yield, Elizabeth Warren, FTX, FTX bankruptcy, Genesis

November 12, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?

Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: earnings estimates, equity positioning, financial conditions, LEIs, Recession, S&P earnings, SLO, Stock Market, Stocks

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    Articles by Tags

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