The FTX Bankruptcy and contagion to other platforms is likely to be the Lehman moment for crypto assets. While we don’t know the exact details leading to the failure, on-chain analysis shows the 3AC failure in June as a flash point. We wish the analysis had been presented a few weeks prior, and not after […]
Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.
This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]
The 2022 crypto selloff exposed the incompetence and hubris in many traditional crypto companies. For example, Celsius had a $1.2bn balance sheet hole on client assets of $4.7bn by the time it filed for bankruptcy. Listed Canadian company Voyager had to declare bankruptcy because it provided a loan of $674m with zero collateral. Other companies […]
The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.