Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]
bankruptcies
We Still Prefer Bonds
We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]
Bank Failures and The Bitcoin Rally
At first blush, it certainly looks like the bank failures may have driven the bitcoin rally higher. Bitcoin and the crypto sector overall had already experienced a crushing drawdown, and the bank failures highlight the fragility of our current debt-laden economic system. However, a deeper look shows that higher beta tech stocks have done just […]