We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]
US debt service
Are we set to repeat 2000 or 2008
Are we set to repeat 2000 or 2008 is an important markets question? Equity indices sold off at both of those points, but for distinctly different reason. The Dispatch sees a higher probability that we are facing a set up like the year 2000, where a subset of stocks became overvalued. The unwind of the […]
Morgan Stanley access to bitcoin, crypto’s political clout, US home price rise, Are you late to bitcoin?
Dispatch #9 – 19th March, 2021 The Dispatch is out earlier than usual as it’ll be on holiday next week and won’t publish until my return. Top news this week is the Morgan Stanley announcement that wealth management (WM) clients can invest in bitcoin via three funds. This will most likely lead to the rest […]