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July 26, 2023 By Asi de Silva

2H23 market outlook

Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: AAII, bankruptcies, consumer confidence, debt service, equity positioning, equity valuations, inflation, leveraged loans, market sentiment, mortgage rate, NAAIM, rate sensitivity, Recession, refinancing, rents, retail sales, retail sentiment, stock concentration, vix

June 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Market Tea Leaves for 2H22

As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: 3AC, Blockfi, bond volatility, buffett indicator, CAPE ratio, Celcius Network, Celsius, Commodities, commodity inflation, crypto winter, earnings estimates, equity valuations, FTX, Gucci, inflation, inventory spike, LooksRare, move index, NFTs, Paypal, profit margins, rents, S&P earnings, SBF, shelter inflation, sticky price inflation, Uniswap, Voyager, wage inflation, yield curve

March 12, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Crypto Executive Order Embraces The Industry

President Biden’s crypto executive order embraces the industry and illustrates how digital assets have become mainstream. It’s surreal to hear “the rise in digital assets creates an opportunity to reinforce American leadership in the global financial system and at the technological frontier…” coming from the White House. The various government departments and agencies are instructed […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: Andre Cronje, CPI, crypto executive order, crypto regulation, EU crypto ban, government surveillance, inflation, OER, PoW ban, rent inflation distortion, rents, shelter inflation

February 26, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?

The question “Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?” does not attempt to make light of the destruction and suffering in Ukrainian. Readers look to The Dispatch for investment observations, not malformed geopolitical ramblings. We shall aim to stick to our knitting even during this unfortunate time. The massive markets reversal on Thursday was a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin adoption, bitcoin donations, crypto narrative, equity valuations, home prices, LUNA, Luna Foundation, Market Outlook, Megacaps, mortgage, mortgage rate, OER, rent inflation distortion, rents, shelter inflation, SWIFT, Ted Cruz, Terra, Ukraine

November 6, 2021 By Asi de Silva

US Inflation Upswing Remains

US inflation upswing remains in place even as the Federal Reserve says it’s transitory and announced a only a gradual reduction of QE. This means the Fed will only slow the purchase of Treasury Securities, with the balance sheet continuing to grow until ~June 2022. Despite the Fed dismissing inflation risks, the key indicators followed […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin salary, CPI, Eric Adams, Francis Suarez, good demand, inflation, interest rate hke, Miami, Morgan Stanley, New York, port backlog, rent inflation distortion, rents, shelter inflation, stablecoin regulatory oversight, stablecoins, supply chain bottleneck, Thailand, Thailand crypto, Tom Emmer, trucking, wage inflation, wages

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