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News

December 3, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Fed’s 2% Inflation Target

It is clear to us that inflation has peaked, but getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target will be a challenge. It’ll be a challenge for our overly indebted world to sustain 5-6% interest rates for a prolonged period, which is the Fed’s guidance. However, there’s plenty of financial liquidity sitting on the sidelines […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Birth-death model, CPI, CPI components, inflation, Jobs report, JOLTS, NFIB, sticky price inflation, unemployment, yield curve

November 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

FTX Bankruptcy

The FTX Bankruptcy and contagion to other platforms is likely to be the Lehman moment for crypto assets. While we don’t know the exact details leading to the failure, on-chain analysis shows the 3AC failure in June as a flash point. We wish the analysis had been presented a few weeks prior, and not after […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: Blockfi, Coinbase, crypto fraud, crypto regulation, crypto selloff, crypto yield, Elizabeth Warren, FTX, FTX bankruptcy, Genesis

September 21, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Recession and Earnings Outlook

This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, container volumes, earnings estimates, equity positioning, Estimate revisions, Leading Indicators, Recession, retail sentiment, S&P earnings, Tornado Cash

September 3, 2022 By Asi de Silva

The Ethereum Merge

The Ethereum merge, where the protocol’s consensus moves from Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism to Proof of Stake (PoS) will take place around 15th September. This is called The Merge because the current Ethereum PoW network will merge with a PoS test network called the Beacon Chain. Here’s how the Ethereum Foundation explains the merge: […]

Filed Under: Blog, News Tagged With: ETH, ETH volatility, ETH Yield, Ethereum, Ethereum Merge

August 13, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Crypto Selloff Exposed Incompetence

The 2022 crypto selloff exposed the incompetence and hubris in many traditional crypto companies. For example, Celsius had a $1.2bn balance sheet hole on client assets of $4.7bn by the time it filed for bankruptcy. Listed Canadian company Voyager had to declare bankruptcy because it provided a loan of $674m with zero collateral. Other companies […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, bitcoin selloff, Celsius, Coinbase, crypto bankruptcy, crypto selloff, insider trading, OFAC sanction, Tornado Cash, Voyager, Zipmex

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