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Recession

July 26, 2023 By Asi de Silva

2H23 market outlook

Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: AAII, bankruptcies, consumer confidence, debt service, equity positioning, equity valuations, inflation, leveraged loans, market sentiment, mortgage rate, NAAIM, rate sensitivity, Recession, refinancing, rents, retail sales, retail sentiment, stock concentration, vix

May 27, 2023 By Asi de Silva

We Still Prefer Bonds

We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bankruptcies, BLS revisions, debt ceiling, Debt to GDP, debt wall, default recoveries, defaults, earnings estimates, equity futures, equity positioning, equity valuations, financial repression, LEIs, rate hikes, ratings downgrades, Recession, S&P earnings, unemployment, US debt service, yield curve, yield curve inversion

November 12, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed 2.0?

Our latest look at valuation, earnings, and macro analysis point to stock market downside. Bearish institutional investor positioning provides room for bear market rallies.

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: earnings estimates, equity positioning, financial conditions, LEIs, Recession, S&P earnings, SLO, Stock Market, Stocks

September 21, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Recession and Earnings Outlook

This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, container volumes, earnings estimates, equity positioning, Estimate revisions, Leading Indicators, Recession, retail sentiment, S&P earnings, Tornado Cash

July 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed?

The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: CAPE ratio, earnings estimates, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, inflation, inflation expectations, Market Outlook, Recession, S&P, S&P earnings, stagflation

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