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Estimate revisions

September 21, 2022 By Asi de Silva

US Recession and Earnings Outlook

This Dispatch updates our US recession and earnings outlook. Forward-looking macro indicators like the LEI point to further slowing. June Quarter ex-energy earnings declined YoY, and Wall Street is finally starting to cut estimates. Yet, the dominant narrative we hear is that that earnings are growing, and valuations are now attractive. As we’ve previously written […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bear market, container volumes, earnings estimates, equity positioning, Estimate revisions, Leading Indicators, Recession, retail sentiment, S&P earnings, Tornado Cash

July 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed?

The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: CAPE ratio, earnings estimates, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, inflation, inflation expectations, Market Outlook, Recession, S&P, S&P earnings, stagflation

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