Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]
consumer confidence
2023 Market Outlook
The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]
Fed follows Biden on Inflation
The Fed follows Biden on inflation with Chair Jay Powell articulating a faster taper this week. There has not been any new material inflation data since the Fed announced gradual taper plans, but the Biden administration has pivoted to an inflation focus. However, with rising inflation, high valuations and policy rates near zero, we are […]