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consumer confidence

July 26, 2023 By Asi de Silva

2H23 market outlook

Our 2H23 market outlook has brightened modestly following the most recent inflation report, which lowered our recession assessment. However, inflation will need to continue to ease into the autumn months in order to provide an all clear on the inflationary coast. While recession risk has ebbed, the economy continues to straddle a knife’s edge. If […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: AAII, bankruptcies, consumer confidence, debt service, equity positioning, equity valuations, inflation, leveraged loans, market sentiment, mortgage rate, NAAIM, rate sensitivity, Recession, refinancing, rents, retail sales, retail sentiment, stock concentration, vix

December 17, 2022 By Asi de Silva

2023 Market Outlook

The 2023 market outlook is murkier than a year ago and client portfolios are conservatively positioned. One year ago, equity valuations were near the 2000 bubble peak and Fed Funds rate was at zero. Avoiding expensive tech stocks and long-duration bonds was an obvious choice to us. For 2023, our highest conviction views are that […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: 2023 Market Outlook, aging demographics, CAPE ratio, consumer confidence, deflation, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, excess savings, fund inflows, inflation, passive investing, S&P, S&P earnings

December 4, 2021 By Asi de Silva

Fed follows Biden on Inflation

The Fed follows Biden on inflation with Chair Jay Powell articulating a faster taper this week. There has not been any new material inflation data since the Fed announced gradual taper plans, but the Biden administration has pivoted to an inflation focus. However, with rising inflation, high valuations and policy rates near zero, we are […]

Filed Under: The Dispatch Tagged With: BadgerDAO, bitcoin adoption, bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin loans, bond volatility, Chevron, coal, consumer confidence, covid breakthrough, covid lockdown, covid vaccines, crypto adoption, crypto hack, Defi exploit, energy capex, energy divestment, energy privatization, energy transition, Eric Balchunas, Exxon, Fed taper, gas fee, inflation, interest rate hke, Jay Powell, move index, Omicron, used auto prices, yield curve

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