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Market Outlook

July 30, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Have Stocks Bottomed?

The S&P just recorded its best month since November 2020, so it’s worth asking if stocks have bottomed. Bear market rallies are normal, and we do not believe the bottom has been reached for this cycle. If the low was reached in June, then it would be the most expensive valuation (PE) bottom. Furthermore, earnings have yet to be cut meaningfully. Recessions have almost always led to large earnings reductions and we anticipate cuts in the 2H as macro conditions only really tightened in May and June.

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: CAPE ratio, earnings estimates, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, inflation, inflation expectations, Market Outlook, Recession, S&P, S&P earnings, stagflation

February 26, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?

The question “Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?” does not attempt to make light of the destruction and suffering in Ukrainian. Readers look to The Dispatch for investment observations, not malformed geopolitical ramblings. We shall aim to stick to our knitting even during this unfortunate time. The massive markets reversal on Thursday was a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin adoption, bitcoin donations, crypto narrative, equity valuations, home prices, LUNA, Luna Foundation, Market Outlook, Megacaps, mortgage, mortgage rate, OER, rent inflation distortion, rents, shelter inflation, SWIFT, Ted Cruz, Terra, Ukraine

February 5, 2022 By Asi de Silva

Are we set to repeat 2000 or 2008

Are we set to repeat 2000 or 2008 is an important markets question? Equity indices sold off at both of those points, but for distinctly different reason. The Dispatch sees a higher probability that we are facing a set up like the year 2000, where a subset of stocks became overvalued. The unwind of the […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: 2022 risks, Aarika Rhodes, Bitcoin El Salvador, bitcoin legal tender El Salvador, Brad Sherman, Chivo, crypto and politics, crypto hack, crypto lobbying, crypto tax, Debt to GDP, Defi exploit, energy capex, energy transition, Iran sanctions, Jim Cramer, Market Outlook, oil leases, US debt service, Wormhole

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