The Ethereum merge, where the protocol’s consensus moves from Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism to Proof of Stake (PoS) will take place around 15th September. This is called The Merge because the current Ethereum PoW network will merge with a PoS test network called the Beacon Chain. Here’s how the Ethereum Foundation explains the merge: […]
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US Housing Market Should Cool
US housing market should cool, due to spiking mortgage rates, but a 2008 type collapse is unlikely. The mortgage market has remained resolutely fixed rate during the current bull market, which underpins our sanguine outlook. Yes, there are signs of excess, but there’s no risk of monthly payment ballooning considering that variable rate funding is […]
Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022
We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]
Rents Will Keep Core-Inflation High for Longer
Dispatch #23 – 2021 July 16th, 2021 This week’s Dispatch is going to focus on Inflation, to explain how rising rents will keep core-inflation high for longer. We’ll look at the composition of the CPI basket, what items are most heavily weighted and how price data is diverging from reality. Housing, the largest weight at […]
FinCEN’s rule change on bitcoin/crypto transactions – How does it impact you
If you already own bitcoin and/or other crypto assets or think you might in the coming months, it is worth understanding FinCEN’s (Financial Crime Enforcement Network, part of the Treasury Dept) proposed reporting rule changes. These changes were proposed on Dec 18th, 2020 with a surprisingly short 15-day comment period, which included both Christmas and […]