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China policy

September 19, 2023 By Asi de Silva

China Economic Slowdown

The China economic slowdown is well documented, and foreign investors have been notable net sellers of the country. This post looks at the economy’s overreliance on investments, the need to stimulate consumption and tactical near-term positives. As fundamental analysts that have followed China since the 1990s, The Dispatch can’t get excited about doubling down on […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: china consumption, china debt, china economy, china equities, china GDP, china growth, china LGFV, china macro, China policy, China RE policy, China sentiment, china stocks, China valuations, MSCI China, President Xi

December 18, 2021 By Asi de Silva

Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022

We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]

Filed Under: Blog, News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin pricing model, bond yield, buybacks, CAPE ratio, central bank liquidity, china equities, China Junk bonds, china macro, China policy, China RE policy, crypto adoption, crypto outlook, equity valuations, Evergrande, fund inflows, insider selling, options activity, retail speculation, yield curve

October 16, 2021 By Asi de Silva

Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US

Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US with the share having doubled since April 2021 and reaching the #1 position globally. US share of bitcoin hashrate reached 34.5% in September, according to University of Cambridge because of China’s crypto mining ban. This geographic migration is important because US-based miners use far more renewable power than Chinese […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bitcoin energy consumption, bitcoin ETF, bitcoin hash rate, bitcoin is worthless, bitcoin miners, bitcoin mining, bitcoin mining council, China policy, China RE policy, crypto lobbying, Energy prices, energy transition, ERISA, Jamie Dimon, Proshares, renewable energy

September 25, 2021 By Asi de Silva

China Crypto Ban & Policy Change Hits Evergrande

China’s crypto ban (again) and Chinese policy changes driving the Evergrande crisis are this week’s focus. When the world’s second largest economy bans an asset class and the largest token (bitcoin) only drops ~5%, does that not seem like a source of strength? Yes, the volatility is unpleasant, but that’s why The Dispatch believes appropriate […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: China crypto ban, China crypto restrictions, China policy, China RE policy, commodity demand, Evergrande

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