It is clear to us that inflation has peaked, but getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target will be a challenge. It’ll be a challenge for our overly indebted world to sustain 5-6% interest rates for a prolonged period, which is the Fed’s guidance. However, there’s plenty of financial liquidity sitting on the sidelines […]
sticky price inflation
Market Tea Leaves for 2H22
As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]
US Inflation Surge
US inflation surge is the big news this week in the media, although The Dispatch is tired of the subject. Last week, we reiterated our high inflation view in Dispatch #36, which was first laid out in Dispatch #23. We continue to see shelter inflation catch-up offset the coming slowdown in transitory items that are […]