Dispatch #6 shares excerpts of our thoughts on the SEC vs. Coinbase lawsuit, and its implications for the broader ecosystem, from a letter to investors of the RockDen Digital Assets Fund last week. The document was finalized on June 16th, and some of the charts will be dated as a result. The Bitcoin price is […]
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We Still Prefer Bonds
We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]
Bank Failures and The Bitcoin Rally
At first blush, it certainly looks like the bank failures may have driven the bitcoin rally higher. Bitcoin and the crypto sector overall had already experienced a crushing drawdown, and the bank failures highlight the fragility of our current debt-laden economic system. However, a deeper look shows that higher beta tech stocks have done just […]
Fed Expands Balance Sheet Again
We do not believe that the Fed expanding its balance sheet again will mirror the asset performance of 2020/21. The current expansion is to heal a wounded banking system scrambling for liquidity. This liquidity from the Fed will be used to repair balance sheets and has a very low probability of being loaned into the […]
Risks From High Interest Rates
The failures of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) this week highlight the economic risks from high interest rates. This should be a warning to the Fed and investors alike that the highly indebted US economy is already in financial stress, even as credit spreads remain normal. Historically, financial market participants have looked to […]