The 2024 year-end letter to investors of RockDen Digital Assets LP, articulated the bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin & crypto. It also highlights that we are well into the middle innings of the current crypto rally. Macro factors provide bullish long-term tailwinds but bitcoin’s on-chain valuations suggests we are well into the middle innings of the current rally.
We are publishing excerpts of that letter to educate our reader on the crypto asset class. We highlight the non-traditional valuation metrics that are available to analyze bitcoin, and the clear cyclical patterns of those metrics. The chart below shows how bitcoin price in the past two cycles peaked when the percentage of younger tokens (less than 6 months old) pushed above ~ 75% of realized cap. The full note, available via the link below, explains realized cap.

Using these measures, investors should have been able to see the cyclical peaks and troughs of bitcoin. Do keep in mind that history often rhymes, but does not repeat.
You can read all our thoughts in the excerpts PDF document.
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