We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]
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Signs of Market Froth
Signs of market froth are rising in both digital and traditional assets. As we show, 10-20% fees on transaction value makes no economic sense, but that is the reality on Ethereum today. This points to expectation of higher asset prices offsetting the punitive fee. Rivian, the recently IPOed electric vehicle maker, reached a $150bn market […]
Bitcoin futures ETF is inefficient
The US finally got a bitcoin ETF, but one that provides exposure via the inefficient futures market. This ETF is an expensive solution due to the cost of rolling future each month. We are talking 5-15% annualized cost. This is what counts as “investor protection” in today’s regulatory world. Yes, bitcoin futures trade on the […]
Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US
Bitcoin hashrate migrates to the US with the share having doubled since April 2021 and reaching the #1 position globally. US share of bitcoin hashrate reached 34.5% in September, according to University of Cambridge because of China’s crypto mining ban. This geographic migration is important because US-based miners use far more renewable power than Chinese […]
Energy Policy and Future Supply Crunch
This week’s focus is energy policy and how it contributes to energy supply crunch. Simply put, we are attempting the clean energy transition by vilifying traditional sources of energy. This is leading to underinvestment that is likely to cause sustained higher prices to consumers. Despite The Dispatch wanting a cleaner, lower carbon future, it has […]