As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]
equity valuations
The Earnings Shoe Dropped
The earnings shoe dropped this week following notable earnings misses by Walmart and Target. This led to a significant sell-off, as the market started to question the current estimates of robust earnings growth in 2022 (+10.2%) and 2023 (+10.1%). This also means that stock valuations aren’t as attractive as forward PE estimates suggest. The Fed […]
Bitcoin is Coming to Retirement Plans
Bitcoin is coming to 401(k) retirement plans as Fidelity hopes to offer access to the 23,000 plans it administers. This move by the largest plan administrator, with $2.7tn in plan assets, should drive long-term bitcoin adoption. It will not, however, change the bear market that is currently underway in many assets. The pain in crypto […]
Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?
The question “Is the Ukraine invasion a buy trigger?” does not attempt to make light of the destruction and suffering in Ukrainian. Readers look to The Dispatch for investment observations, not malformed geopolitical ramblings. We shall aim to stick to our knitting even during this unfortunate time. The massive markets reversal on Thursday was a […]
Peak Market Uncertainty in 2022
We face peak market uncertainty in 2022 as rate hikes give way to 2021’s easy liquidy. The Fed will stop expanding the balance sheet by March 2022 and it plans three rate hikes next year. This assumes core inflation falling sharply, whereas we see core inflation staying high even as headline inflation eases next year. […]