As July approaches, let’s read the market tea leaves for 2H2022 and beyond. Over the past few weeks, markets have priced a broader growth scare as commodity equities sold off sharply and Treasuries priced a lower and earlier peak in Fed Funds rate. However, bonds markets were blind to the inflation surge, so why should […]
Crypto Breaks Cyclical Patterns
The current price action makes it increasingly clear that crypto breaks cyclical patterns of the past. In bitcoin’s short three-cycle history, each cycle saw the token price drop to the 200-week moving average (wma) at the depth of the bear market. However, the price did not fall below the prior cycle high. The current price […]
First Signs of Slowing Real Estate
We saw the first signs of slowing real estate activity this week. April new home sales dropped 16.6% MoM and home builder surveys show an uptick in cancellations. This slowdown is needed to cool the economy and ease inflation. Rents (aka shelter) is over 40% of the core-CPI index, and we need easing house prices […]
The Earnings Shoe Dropped
The earnings shoe dropped this week following notable earnings misses by Walmart and Target. This led to a significant sell-off, as the market started to question the current estimates of robust earnings growth in 2022 (+10.2%) and 2023 (+10.1%). This also means that stock valuations aren’t as attractive as forward PE estimates suggest. The Fed […]
Bitcoin is Coming to Retirement Plans
Bitcoin is coming to 401(k) retirement plans as Fidelity hopes to offer access to the 23,000 plans it administers. This move by the largest plan administrator, with $2.7tn in plan assets, should drive long-term bitcoin adoption. It will not, however, change the bear market that is currently underway in many assets. The pain in crypto […]