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May 27, 2023 By Asi de Silva

We Still Prefer Bonds

We still prefer bonds despite the frustratingly flat YTD performance (aggregate bond ETF), and despite our longer-term skepticism. The flow of soft economic data continues to make a recession a high probability. Recent revisions to labor data and the banking stress have raised confidence in the cautious view. In our 2023 Outlook, we highlighted a […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bankruptcies, BLS revisions, debt ceiling, Debt to GDP, debt wall, default recoveries, defaults, earnings estimates, equity futures, equity positioning, equity valuations, financial repression, LEIs, rate hikes, ratings downgrades, Recession, S&P earnings, unemployment, US debt service, yield curve, yield curve inversion

April 15, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Bank Failures and The Bitcoin Rally

At first blush, it certainly looks like the bank failures may have driven the bitcoin rally higher. Bitcoin and the crypto sector overall had already experienced a crushing drawdown, and the bank failures highlight the fragility of our current debt-laden economic system. However, a deeper look shows that higher beta tech stocks have done just […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank credit, bank failure, bankruptcies, Bitcoin, bitcoin adoption, bitcoin funding rate, Bitcoin futures liquidation, bitcoin on-chain data, BTFP, crypto, crypto liquidation, equity positioning, HODL ratio

March 17, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Fed Expands Balance Sheet Again

We do not believe that the Fed expanding its balance sheet again will mirror the asset performance of 2020/21. The current expansion is to heal a wounded banking system scrambling for liquidity. This liquidity from the Fed will be used to repair balance sheets and has a very low probability of being loaned into the […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank credit, bank failure, BTFP, credit standards, FDIC, Fed balance sheet, Fed discount window, Fed QE, First Republic Bank, lobbying, moral hazard, SVB

March 11, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Risks From High Interest Rates

The failures of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) this week highlight the economic risks from high interest rates. This should be a warning to the Fed and investors alike that the highly indebted US economy is already in financial stress, even as credit spreads remain normal. Historically, financial market participants have looked to […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: bank failure, bond yield, credit spreads, defaults, high yield, junk bond, LBO, leveraged loans, rate risk, Silvergate, SVB

February 4, 2023 By Asi de Silva

Debt Ceiling & Liquidity

The current debt ceiling morass should add liquidity into the economy and markets in the short term. The added liquidity, along with Fed pivot enthusiasm, is clearly supporting higher asset prices currently. This is ironic as not resolving the debt ceiling in a timely manner increases market risk, and it highlights the unsustainable debt picture […]

Filed Under: News, The Dispatch Tagged With: BoJ, debt ceiling, earnings estimates, equity positioning, equity valuations, Estimate revisions, financial conditions, Japanese flows, Kuroda, LEIs, retail sentiment, S&P, S&P earnings, TGA, YCC, yield curve

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